And all but one of those are in solidly Red territory (Heller’s seat in Nevada probably the only vulnerable one). Maybe Arizona could be a 2nd depending on who the party nominates to backfill Flake. Some of the Democrat seats are much more vulnerable. Honestly, if the Democrats come out of 2018 without losing any seats in the Senate, that would be a big win for them.

The GOP would have to lose a net 22 seats in the House. Rare, but possible. We’ve seen that many seats change hands 3 times in the last 30 years.