My primary point is that regardless of the rhetoric or what kind of
"trigger laws" seem to be ready to go in some states, I think what eventually shakes out in many states that are talking in the most restrictive ways may be a bit different than how it currently appears. For example, I'm willing to bet the majority of people in a number of states don't even know what may be set to "trigger" in the most restrictive circumstances at this moment, so if/when that moment really comes -- things may not unfold quite as expected based on public reaction. I'm basing this purely on the notion of how I think the majority of people feel about something like first trimester abortions, or at least something that may be in the 10 week range -- along with things like rape/incest language. I realize some states are going to try and go for effectively a full ban or what 6 weeks means in reality (along with what seems like absurd language trying to restrict movement of state citizens). I am willing to bet most will struggle with that and may suddenly feel in a bit more of a compromising mood when the time comes. And this is even assuming Roe is 100% overturned, which I'm not sure is such a great bet either.
Yes, many states will try and become more restrictive than current framework. The question simply becomes how much. Not sure what you really mean by legal abortion as a foundational right. Every one of our current rights has limits - certainly including abortion now. Just a matter of where that line is drawn. Current Roe trimester framework starts to draw lines at approx 13 weeks -- so how much of a sea of change might it truly be for most states if some brighter lines are drawn and around 10 or 12 weeks? I agree that 6 weeks is an issue.
As far as Stare Decisis, reasonable people can and will eternally disagree on this one given the legal basis of Roe. Precedent absolutely should be important, but it cannot mean everything forever. We have had some "Dredfull" Supreme Court decisions in our history that have needed to be overturned. I know how bleak it feels with politics in todays world, but the leaked memo makes a fair point that the attempt for the SC to try and essentially write the full framework for this issue was likely misplaced and probably caused more fracture than anything. It is a uniquely difficult issue - probably best suited somehow for compromised federal legislation.
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In response to this post by Seattle .Hoo)
Posted: 05/06/2022 at 5:44PM